The Calgary Real Estate Board has published its 2026 Forecast since our last email, so let's dive into our data & experience to identify where we agree and disagree.
Where we agree:
- Big picture: A two-speed market - apartments and suburban townhomes (buyer’s market) versus freehold and urban townhomes (balanced). That gap is widening.
Where we can be a little bolder:
1) We think the buyer’s market for apartments is very set in, with 1–2 years to go and significant downside momentum in many areas, absent any external positive shocks. January saw record inventory for apartments in Calgary, and our data doesn't include shadow inventory (builders might only list a handful of apartments on the MLS, but have dozens or more actually for sale or under construction).
2) Product location matters enormously - this is our anecdotal evidence gathered from operating on the ground, so to speak. More on that right now...
Let's Talk About Freehold (No Condo Fees)
Despite headline inventory increases, most homes without condo fees remain supply-constrained in practice.
Outside of actual (literal) new construction areas, and the NE, the market for homes without condo fees is a low-inventory environment, which, on paper, has looked like a seller's market this whole time. We have buyers looking for country-residential properties, urban properties in prime areas, as well as in popular suburbs (e.g., Cranston) away from new construction, and I commonly run into multiple offer situations. The more prime the area, the more common the phenomenon. I would say the decreasing order of hotness is: 1) Super-prime Inner City, 2) Prime acreages West(ish) of Calgary, 3) Entry-level & move-up homes in prime suburbs, generally inside Stoney Trail.
As we move toward spring, Breanna’s job becomes increasingly complex, as pricing accuracy now matters more than timing. What is the exact market like for the properties she is listing - trying to get as much insight as possible up front to predict the outcome of a listing at various prices so as not to leave any value on the table, or conversely have a listing that sits. Outcomes are highly dependent on the specific market for each property. One neighbourhood can have 1-2 months of inventory (MOI), and the next door (less desirable one) might have 3-4 MOI. Thankfully, these numbers are relatively static - so it's not too unpredictable with good research.
New construction areas generally have 2-7 months of inventory, but even that is a huge variation. Generally speaking, the only places where prices are actually falling are the far north and the far south. Outside of these areas, demand remains supportive enough to prevent broad price declines.
The market for long-term family homes in the Inner City is also highly location (& quality) dependent - with areas like the Inner City SW experiencing a continued drought in inventory and sturdy confidence. I have bumped into multiple offer situations (or close) more times than the 4-5 MOI would suggest.
Extra Apartments Information
There are more apartments listed for sale on the MLS than ever before in Calgary, with rents continuing to fall, and many more under construction (mainly for rent but also for sale). There is just around 4 MOI in the Inner City and just over that number in the suburbs, but prices are falling faster in the suburbs due to quicker falling rents, less confidence, and aggressive builders due to their shadow inventory. Rents are continuing to fall steadily, though less quickly than 18 months ago. HERE is the Calgary rent report showing this trend. The Calgary apartment market is undergoing a classic real estate cycle due to overbuilding.
Townhomes: Where Are You (For Sale)?
The suburbs
There is 3.5 MOI for suburban townhomes, versus 2.5 MOI in the Inner City. That's a real difference, but again, just like with apartments, the hidden inventory that builders have coming online is what is tipping outlying markets into a buyer's market. Further, most suburban builders have built townhomes for sale, not rent. Built-for-sale product hits the market faster and more directly than rentals.
Commuter Towns - Okotoks VS Cochrane & Airdrie
Okotoks continues to blaze its own trail with the majority of Calgary (2 MOI), whereas the building booms in Cochrane and Airdrie are pressuring home values (4 MOI). None of this is due to apartments or townhomes - there are just a lot of homes coming online in this moment. These towns are all very busy growth markets with high supply and demand - Airdrie & Cochrane are just temporarily out of balance based on current absorption rates.
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It's going to be a wonderful, adventurous year in real estate. We'll be watching all these market segments closely, and busily operating in them all, then reporting back to you!
, our hand-selected, top-rated colleagues from across the country have shared their local market insights.
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