Our take on the CREA forecast | what’s real, what’s noise, and how to get ahead of the curve
Is the Recovery Really Coming? My Take on CREA’s Latest Housing Outlook
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) just released its latest forecast for 2025 and 2026. The headline message is straightforward: the housing recovery isn’t cancelled, it’s just delayed. But is that realistic?
If you own a home, plan to buy, or are watching the market for your next move, this is a good moment to step back from the noise and look at the data with a level head.
What CREA Is Predicting (No BS)
According to the forecast:
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2025 prices: down slightly, about -1.4% nationally
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2025 sales: a small dip of -1.1%
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2026 prices: a rebound of +3.2%, returning to ~$700K national average
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Regional split: Ontario and BC down, most other provinces up +4% to +8%
CREA’s view is that activity has already begun recovering since March 2025, and that the rebound is simply happening slower than expected.
Why They Might Be Right
There are real tailwinds forming:
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Pent-up demand has not gone away
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Rates are drifting in the right direction
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Buyers are re-entering slowly, which matches what many realtors are seeing on the ground
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Most provinces are stable or rising, with ON and BC dragging down the national average
In other words: there is some truth to the delayed-recovery story.
The Other Side of the Story (The Part CREA Softens)
However, there are strong counter-forces that CREA doesn’t lean into:
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Affordability is still at 30-year extremes, especially in ON/BC
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Rate cuts alone don’t fix stress-test math or household debt levels
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Investor demand has cooled, and renewals in 2025–2026 will create pressure for some sellers
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Immigration and non-permanent resident policy is tightening, reducing the “population pressure” narrative
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Inventory is quietly rising in several big markets
Historically, Canadian corrections don’t snap back in a clean V-shape. They flatten, drag, and grind their way into the next cycle.
So yes, a recovery is likely — but slow, uneven, and regional, not explosive.
The Most Likely Outcome (Realistic Middle Ground)
The fundamentals suggest a market that looks like this:
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PRAIRIES + some ATLANTIC markets: modest growth, stable demand
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ONTARIO + BC: longer stabilization period
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NATIONAL TREND: a slow, boring recovery, not a surge
Think of it as a check-mark shape, not a rocket, and not a cliff.
What This Means for You
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If you’re buying: don’t wait for a “crash.” Focus on quality, location, and timeline, not headlines
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If you’re selling: price realistically and expect a patient market, with stronger conditions in 2026 than 2025
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If you’re holding long-term: this environment still rewards fundamentals more than ever
Final Thoughts
CREA’s forecast isn’t unreasonable — it’s just optimistic. The truth likely sits in the middle. A recovery is forming, but Canada’s market is still working through affordability, policy changes, and the hangover of the last cycle. Slow and steady is the more probable path.
If you’d like a breakdown for your specific community, reach out anytime. National averages are interesting, but real estate is always local.
Before You Go
Remember: Calgary often moves differently than the national average — which is why strategy should be based on your property, not the headline.
If you want to make a move while the market is shifting, let’s talk about your specific situation:
• Book a 15-minute call → tel:5877007123
• Discover your home’s value → https://ateamcalgary.ca/whats-my-home-worth
Sources
• CREB Forecast (Earlier): https://www.creb.com/News/Media_Releases/2025/January/2025_Forecast/
• CREB Spring Update (Newest): https://www.creb.com/News/Media_Releases/2025/June/spring_2025_housing_stats/
• CREA Latest Quarterly Forecast: https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/canadian-housing-market-stats/quarterly-forecasts/
• CREA Previous Forecast Release: https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/quarterly-forecasts-4/