MARKET UPDATE FOR CALGARY REAL ESTATE IN AUGUST 2025
The month of August (and the first half of September) has been markedly slower for sales overall, but it's a nuanced picture. Individual experiences in the market are highly variable. There are some uncertanties, but we also know a lot...
If you're selling a newer, more expensive detached home in an area adjacent to new construction, you might experience fewer showings than you might expect. The same can be said for sellers of apartments in outlying areas. But then on the other hand, entry-level detached homes in places like Cochrane/Okotoks, or parts of the Inner City, are selling very well. There is so much variation, though: For example, when we look at the Inner City, even within our hyper-local area (Sunnyside to Pt McKay), we observe significant variation in supply-demand between individual neighbourhoods.
Investigating for this report is always cathartic for me (Tom), or at least grounding...
Some insight: As we travel through the month, we provide market analyses for different homes for sale/purchase - creating around 2 pricing documents (CMAs) per day. Each time we do that, we check in on the months of inventory (MOI) and price chart for that specific community; we get a sense of general trends as the month goes on. This month, we noticed growing MOI in many of the communities in which we are currently active, but not all. We are also occasionally exposed to some buyer (not really seller) nervousness, which is a negative bias that we are quite used to. Still, it's nice to step back to see the bigger picture regularly.
Observing the above Calgary table knits it all together, and reminds us that we are very much *not* in a buyer's market overall: Take the freehold market for example: Prices are broadly stable across most price ranges (some erosion in some places, mainly due to seasonaility), and the supply/demand balance still technically favors the seller - right up to $2m (actually around $2.25m).
One key statistic that supports the view that the market is balancing out (not moving into a buyer's market) is the "Calgary's Monthly New Listings" number [3,454 (-2%)]. For the last 2-2.5 years, each month, the rate of new listings has been up vis-à-vis the same month of the previous year - as a response to higher selling prices/rates. It is no longer rising. Add to that the fact that sellers (not usually Breanna's clients) are now realizing that some listings don't sell - they are taking them down, or those listings are expiring. This is one of the defining features of a balanced market - belying a truth that sellers in fact *don't* think the sky is falling - We've experienced true buyer's markets, and in those markets, they keep them listed.
It's noteworthy that if we delve deeper into this particular stat, we find that it is the condo market which is now seeing significantly fewer listings YoY and more expiries, in response to it being in a buyer's market. In contrast, the seasonally adjusted rate of new listings continues to rise moderately (though decelerating vis-à-vis last year) in the freehold market. Hence, we expect the market to "settle" into a buyer's market for apartments and a balanced market for freehold.
On the ground, this is an empowering time for buyers - As a buyer's agent, I love that - but, to share openly, we should be careful not to extrapolate too much into the future, based on the negative bias that we all naturally have as risk-averse individuals who read the news. Those looking to move up or add to their portfolio will look back at this year as an opportunity, or a missed opportunity.
Two things to watch this month: 1) Will the BoC reduce fixed rates? The variable rate is falling due to the bond market. 2) Will the slow August (and start of September) turn out ot be a blip or a leg down? We won't have a full picture on that until around 6 weeks from now.
This month, we're featuring some buyer advice from Tom, which makes sense, but is super-hard to follow, even for the most seasoned, disciplined professionals!
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