MARKET UPDATE FOR CALGARY REAL ESTATE IN MARCH 2025
First (& Importantly): Hormuz, Oil & Rates
The Iran conflict has now gone on long enough to start showing up in conversations. Unlike last month, we are now fielding more questions from clients, which is often the first signal of a potential shift.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for several weeks, restricting oil supply. If this continues, oil prices are likely to remain elevated.
- Near term (rates): higher oil creates inflation pressure and reduces the likelihood of rate cuts
- Medium term (rates): if elevated energy costs begin to slow global growth, rates could move lower
- Oil: the longer the disruption lasts, the more likely this becomes a structurally higher oil price environment rather than a short-term spike. This creates affordability pressure in many markets, while benefiting producers
- Financial markets: equity volatility impacts household wealth, and capital can shift between stocks and real estate, which may influence demand for investment properties
- Psychology: uncertainty tends to slow decision-making and transaction activity, particularly in more rate-sensitive segments, while higher-end and equity-driven segments are typically less affected
Calgary and Fort McMurray are likely to be impacted differently than the average Canadian market.
Calgary Area
Our market shifted again this month, and forces could accelerate.
The key number to watch is monthly new listings, which were down 16% versus last February.
For the past three years, listing flow has generally been increasing across all segments. While supply remains high in absolute terms, the change in direction is the story.
Breaking this down:
- The reduction in new listings is showing up across all housing types, with the most notable shift in detached homes
- Detached homeowners appear more confident and less sensitive to current rate levels
- Some apartment owners are choosing not to list, given current market pricing expectations
Demand across all housing types continues to come off last year’s levels. This is best described as a
soft landing for homes without condo fees, and a more meaningful correction for properties with condo fees, largely driven by declining rents.
Rents are still falling, but at a slower pace - approximately 0–5% annually, versus closer to 10% previously.
Hormuz effects notwithstanding, we expect the apartment market to continue experiencing pressure as prices adjust to align with rents. Anecdotally - and supported by sales-to-list price ratios - we are seeing a gradual increase in multiple-offer situations for homes without condo fees, particularly in more affordable segments and prime locations.
While the situation remains uncertain, particularly in terms of duration, our base case is that a prolonged Hormuz disruption would utlimately cause Calgary real estate prices to rise. It tends to redirect capital and people toward energy-driven markets such as ours. That said, it may take several months of sustained conditions before those effects become clearly visible.
Keen readers will find the Fort McMurray section below interesting and informative:
For those interested, here's CREB's recent article about the deepening divide between the Freehold & Condominium markets.
Agent Reports from Across Canada 
Click our
Insider Market Report to see what our network of top agents is saying about their markets across Canada.
Please let us know if you or a family member would like to be connected with an agent anywhere in Canada.
Special Moment
Breanna Sets 2 YTD 2026 Calgary records (out of 5,000+ sales)
- Please contact Breanna for details 587.700.7123
- See the brochure for full listing information
- Watch the YouTube video HERE
Did you know: RE/MAX agents donate commissions to the Children's Miracle Network from every transaction
Meaning & Thank You
This month has been heavy with meaning for both of us. We feel so fortunate to be here right now - in a position to help families on both sides of the business. It's hard to put into words our gratitude for being let into your world so that we can serve you.
Thank you for supporting our business. We're committed as ever to supporting you in return, to the best of our abilities and with our whole hearts.
Kind Regards,
Breanna & Tom Albrecht
The A-Team