The exciting headlines are about oil and tariffs, but when it comes to our local real estate markets, the real story is "nothing to see here". That is, until we start talking about apartments... which are falling in value.
Freehold
Detached and semi-detached homes show remarkable balance across almost all price ranges and most locations. Prices are essentially flat (though appreciating mildly in some pockets and depreciating mildly in others, as you might expect - these patterns seem to follow the deeper determinants of community quality).
For this segment, sales are down year-over-year, as are new listings. Months of inventory are steady at essentially 3–4 months at every price point, as are days on market and average negotiated discounts. It's a quieter, smaller market, but a remarkably stable one - especially given the global geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
On the buyer side, I'm experiencing pretty typical ratios of competitive versus non-competitive offer situations. If anything, I'm experiencing some tightness at the higher price ranges in the Inner City, but I think this is more about quality product than average product. I also think it's easy for us as agents to mistakenly report that this segment is overheating. We're time-biased: it's been the other way around at the higher end for so many years that a normal market can feel hot.
So far this month, the news has been fairly wild, so I took a peek at the month-to-date stats in our live system and, so far, nothing has happened.
Apartments
Apartments are firmly in a buyer's market, with 5-6 months of inventory, which has recently been holding steady. Price declines have accelerated this year, with the benchmark down around 8% year-over-year.
That figure, however, masks some enormous differences. Studios, small one-bedrooms and distant suburban apartments are generally doing much worse than larger, more central apartments. When we estimate values for sellers coming to market, we're sometimes finding properties in that first group 20-30% below their peak.
This, of course, is also what eventually puts the brakes on new listings. People become less willing to sell. Supply stops growing. Prices eventually find a floor.
Oil (New) & Tariffs (Not So New)
I'm no politician, and I don't love conjecture, so I'll try to give my view without painting myself into a corner:
Let's start with the easier bit: We've seen the tariff playbook before, and it's not good in the short run if you're an Ontario company or worker directly exposed to it. Broadly speaking, Calgary employers and employees are much less affected. It adds to general uncertainty in Canada, but matters less for our market, and likely won't last forever.
Oil is more complicated: Offensive military technology has changed, and until defensive technology catches up, we may find ourselves in a world where moderate-to-severe oil shocks occur more regularly, as the ability to disrupt Middle Eastern supply becomes more widely distributed. Longer term, this should be positive for investment in Alberta oil. In the shorter term, if these shocks are large or extended, they could contribute to global economic boom-bust cycles. The effects on employment, inflation, and interest rates could make for more volatile real estate markets - not just in Toronto and Vancouver, but here too. For now, this is theory. We aren't seeing an obvious effect in the Calgary housing data.
Canada Divided?
Our network of #1 and #2 agents throughout the country reported again this month, as usual. Oil & prairie provinces are seeing balanced or busy conditions, whereas BC & Ontario markets are selling mixed or buyer's market conditions depending on the city.
As a reminder, we have built a network of agents who are top-rated in their markets. If you ever need a great agent in Canada, please reach out to us and we will connect you.